Western Canada’s Coming Supply Crunch: A Tenant Advocate’s Perspective from the Ground

After 35 years in industrial real estate, I’ve learned one thing: the numbers rarely tell the full story. What really matters is what you hear when you’re walking the floors, talking to tenants, sitting with landlords, or pushing through a tough negotiation.

That’s why I want to share what I’m seeing in Western Canada right now. From Vancouver to Calgary to Winnipeg, the same theme keeps coming up: speculative construction has slowed to a crawl — and that’s going to create real challenges for tenants when demand picks up again in the next 12–24 months.

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

Developers aren’t building the way they used to. Financing is tougher, construction costs are higher, and very few projects are breaking ground without a tenant already signed on. That’s a huge shift from just a few years ago when construction of a spec building was the norm.

Even when a project does move forward, approvals and construction stretch 18–24 months before you see usable space. For tenants planning expansions, that’s a long wait — and it means the window to secure space before the crunch is already open.

What the Data Tells Us

The numbers back up what I hear every day:

• Vancouver: Vacancy at 4%, but only a fraction of that is truly functional for modern operations.
  
• Calgary & Edmonton: Vacancies hover around 5–6%, but speculative building is thin. Developers are cautious, watching demand before they commit.
  
• Winnipeg: Vacancy is very tight at 2.7% overall (North 3.0%, South 3.1%), making supply extremely constrained.
  

The takeaway? On paper, supply looks “okay.” In practice, it feels much tighter.

Why This Matters for Tenants

I’ve had a number of conversations with clients over the past year who are sitting on cash, waiting for the right moment to expand, consolidate, or relocate.

When that wave of demand hits, there won’t be a new pipeline of speculative space to absorb it. The best options will be snapped up quickly, and rents will keep climbing. We’ve seen this cycle before, and I know how quickly conditions can change.

My Advice to Tenants

If you’re holding off on commercial real estate decisions, my advice is simple: don’t wait.

• Start conversations about projects early — especially if you foresee a change in your space needs in the next 18–24 months.
  
• Keep flexibility in mind: rightsizing, subleasing, or building expansion options into your lease can make all the difference.
  
• Don’t go it alone. Landlords are more sophisticated than ever, with entire teams behind them. Having tenant-only advisors in your corner levels the playing field.

Final Thought

Western Canada is at an inflection point. Developers are holding back. Tenants are gearing up. And when those two forces meet, it’s going to feel like a supply crunch overnight.

We’ve lived through enough of these cycles to know how quickly the balance can shift. If you’re a tenant in Western Canada, now is the time to prepare — not when the market is already heating up.

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